South America Stands to Benefit From a Trade War It Doesn’t Want
Some South American commodity producers may see their fortunes rise from the trade spat between the U.S. and China. But none are rejoicing, at least not publicly.
China, gobbling up a growing share of the region’s exports since the commodities boom, could further deepen its ties with South America to make up for the closure of the U.S. market. Take the example of soy. If Beijing restricts imports of the product from the U.S., it would likely need to buy more from the other three top exporters — Paraguay, Argentina and Brazil, said Paraguayan central bank chief Carlos Fernandez Valdovinos.
“As there’s not enough supply probably, the price will increase, so in the end we could benefit there,” Fernandez said in an interview in Washington, where he attended the International Monetary Fund’s spring meetings. “But trade wars are bad for everyone. Maybe it’s beneficial for one sector, maybe for one year, but in the medium-term it’s bad for everyone.’’ ……..More